ASML
Dutch monopoly on EUV lithography - every leading-edge AI chip (TSMC N3/N2, Samsung, Intel 18A) is built on ASML EUV scanners, and it is the sole supplier of high-NA EUV. Q2 2026 (reported 2026-07-15): net sales EUR 9.3B and net income EUR 2.9B, beating the high end of guidance, with FY2026 guidance raised to EUR 43-45B. Management attributed demand to AI-driven Logic and Memory capex and plans roughly 30% EUV/DUV capacity expansion into 2027.
Scenarios
Zero substitutes for EUV — competitive moat is physics-deep. Every AI chip generation increases lithography intensity (more layers, smaller nodes). High-NA EUV ($380M+ per tool) extends the monopoly through 2030.
China export ban (~15% of historical revenue) tightening. Cyclical capex risk if AI training capex peaks. Single-supplier dependency makes ASML a geopolitical target.
Key Factors to Watch
- ●EUV monopoly — no competitor in next 5+ years; high-NA EUV extends moat through 2030
- ●Q1 2026 BEAT with raised outlook — AI demand drives multi-year backlog
- ●HBM DRAM + leading-edge logic both require advanced lithography — dual AI exposure
- ●China export controls (~15% revenue) primary geopolitical risk
Manufacturing Peers
Last researched: 2026-08-29
This is research and analysis, not financial advice. Scores reflect AI impact potential, not investment recommendations.