AI Forecast Tracker
← Back to scoreboard
FinanceBLK

BlackRock

Strongest AI-moat story in finance, built on the Aladdin platform rather than AI products. Q2 2026 (reported July 15) — revenue $7.08B (+31% YoY), record AUM $15.3T, $192B of net inflows, 8% organic base-fee growth, adjusted operating margin 45.9%. Technology services and subscription revenue $566M (+13% YoY; ACV +15%), slower than Q1's +22%, which still carried Preqin acquisition benefit. Private markets AUM $329B after HPS (closed July 2025). The AI Infrastructure Partnership closed its ~$40B Aligned Data Centers purchase in July 2026, and the firm was reported among investors in Project Prometheus' ~$10B round at ~$38B (April 2026, no lead investor).

AI Impact Score
8.0/10
↑↑ Very Positive
Scoring Breakdown
Sector Base
7
AI Revenue Exposure
7
Moat Durability
10
Disruption Risk (lower=better)
3
AI Adoption Maturity
9

Scenarios

Bull Case

Aladdin switching costs are extreme (multi-year integrations, regulatory sign-offs) and ACV is growing 15%, making the platform the industry's default risk and data layer. AI copilots on that installed base deepen lock-in, while GIP and the AI Infrastructure Partnership give direct exposure to data-center buildout economics.

Bear Case

Technology services is only ~8% of revenue and grew 13% in Q2 — the AI moat is real but small next to a market-beta asset-management engine. A serious Aladdin outage or breach, or in-house AI platforms at sovereign funds and large asset owners, could erode the premium.

Key Factors to Watch

  • ●Q2 2026 (Jul 15) — revenue $7.08B (+31%), AUM $15.3T, net inflows $192B, adjusted operating margin 45.9%
  • ●Technology services and subscription revenue $566M (+13% YoY), ACV +15% — ~8% of total revenue
  • ●Private markets AUM $329B post-HPS (closed July 2025); 2026 buyback plan raised to $2B
  • ●AI Infrastructure Partnership closed ~$40B Aligned Data Centers deal (July 2026) — $30B equity target, up to $100B with debt
  • ●Project Prometheus — reported participant in ~$10B round at ~$38B valuation (April 2026), no lead investor

Score History

DateScoreDirectionNote
2026-10-038.0Very PositiveRotating refresh — summary moved from Q1 to Q2 2026 (Jul 15) — revenue $7.08B (+31%), AUM $15.3T, tech services $566M (+13%, ACV +15%); fixed HPS close date (July 2025, not Jan 2026) and Prometheus role (reported participant, not anchor); AIP closed Aligned ~$40B; score held 8.0
2026-03-088.0Very PositiveScore 7.9→8.0 (formula reweight: sb 0.25→0.15, are 0.20→0.25, md 0.20→0.25, dr 0.20→0.25, aam 0.15→0.10)
2026-03-087.9PositiveScore 8.1->7.9 (are 9->7, md 9->10). External research cross-ref: tech services $4.4B on $20B+ revenue (are=7 not 9), but Aladdin $25T ecosystem is impregnable (md=10)
2026-03-088.1Very PositiveInitial assessment from batch 2 research

Finance Peers

Last researched: 2026-10-03

This is research and analysis, not financial advice. Scores reflect AI impact potential, not investment recommendations.