Exelon
Q2 2026 (reported Jul 30) — adj. EPS $0.43 vs $0.39; FY2026 guide $2.81-2.91 reaffirmed (FY2025 actual $2.77). Capital plan $41.7B for 2026-2029 with 7.9% rate base growth. The data-center pipeline was pruned to ~36 GW from ~43 GW, with ~11 GW in advanced stages (down from ~18 GW), as speculative projects were weeded out amid local pushback against AI facilities; ~40% of ComEd's ~9 GW advanced load is backed by transmission security agreements with ~$1B collateral. AI exposure is regulated wires capex, not AI revenue. Shares traded near 52-week lows (~$41) in late Sep 2026.
Scenarios
As the largest US utility by customers (10M+), every data center that does connect in ComEd and Mid-Atlantic territory adds regulated rate base, and the pruned ~11 GW advanced pipeline is higher quality with collateral behind it. Management sees a further $12-17B transmission opportunity outside the current plan.
Data-center demand is proving more speculative than headlines — the advanced pipeline fell ~40% in one quarter, and a 1.8 GW Joliet agreement backed by a $1 letter of credit ended up before FERC (Sep 2026). Affordability politics in Maryland and capped regulated ROE limit upside.
Key Factors to Watch
- ●Data-center pipeline ~36 GW total, ~11 GW advanced (Q2 2026, down from ~43 GW and ~18 GW in Q1)
- ●$41.7B 2026-2029 capital plan, 7.9% rate base growth; $12-17B extra transmission upside
- ●Transmission security agreements back ~40% of ComEd's ~9 GW advanced load with ~$1B collateral
- ●FERC declined to rule on ComEd's bid to cancel the 1.8 GW PowerHouse Hillwood agreement (Sep 22, 2026)
- ●CFO transition — Robert Kleczynski CFO from Oct 5, 2026; COO departing in 2027
- ●Maryland affordability pressure — ~$160M ratepayer refund after court loss (late Sep 2026)
Score History
| Date | Score | Direction | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | 6.0 | Positive | Rotating refresh — Q2 2026 (Jul 30) pipeline pruned 43 to 36 GW (advanced 18 to 11 GW), capex $41.7B 2026-29; removed unverified POSEIDON and stale DOGE and capex items; pipeline cut predates last refresh so score held 6.0 |
| 2026-03-08 | 6.0 | Positive | Score 5.8→6.0 (formula reweight: sb 0.25→0.15, are 0.20→0.25, md 0.20→0.25, dr 0.20→0.25, aam 0.15→0.10) |
| 2026-03-08 | 5.8 | Neutral | Initial assessment from batch 9 blind spot review |
Government Peers
Last researched: 2026-10-03
This is research and analysis, not financial advice. Scores reflect AI impact potential, not investment recommendations.