Guardant Health
Liquid-biopsy leader converting regulatory wins into screening volume. Q2 2026 (reported July 30) — revenue $335M (+44% YoY); oncology $219M (+38%) on ~104,000 tests (+63%); biopharma and data $61M (+9%); screening $53M vs $15M a year earlier on ~66,000 Shield tests vs 16,000. FY26 guidance raised to $1.34-1.36B, including 270,000-285,000 Shield tests and $218-230M screening revenue. Access widened through American Cancer Society guideline inclusion and UnitedHealth coverage (effective Aug 1). Guardant360 Liquid CDx (FDA-approved May 19) has a 100x wider footprint. Tests run on the Guardant Infinity and InfinityAI platform. Q2 net loss $120M; FY26 free-cash burn guided at $195-205M.
Scenarios
Shield volume is compounding (~4x YoY) as coverage reaches ~70M lives (~60% of the market) and a new workflow cuts cost per test ~15% by year-end, while Reveal MRD volume more than doubled. MetaSight (acquired Dec 2025) and Shield MCD extend the same blood-based platform into new indications.
Still loss-making ($120M Q2 net loss) with ~$200M FY26 cash burn and breakeven targeted only for end-2027. Cologuard keeps entrenched mindshare, ~40% of the screening market is still uncovered, and the claim that the AI platform improves with every patient is company-asserted rather than independently shown.
Key Factors to Watch
- ●Q2 2026 (Jul 30) — revenue $335M (+44%); FY26 guide raised again to $1.34-1.36B
- ●Shield ~66K tests in Q2 (vs 16K); FY26 guide 270-285K tests, $218-230M screening revenue
- ●ACS guideline inclusion + UnitedHealth coverage (effective Aug 1) — ~70M lives, ~60% of market
- ●Guardant360 Liquid CDx FDA approval May 19, 2026 — 100x wider footprint, 7 CDx claims transferred
- ●MetaSight acquired Dec 2025 ($59M upfront, up to $90M contingent) — CRC and liver-fibrosis assays
- ●FY26 free-cash burn $195-205M; cash $1.2B; company-wide breakeven targeted end-2027
Score History
| Date | Score | Direction | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | 8.3 | Very Positive | Rotating refresh — Q2 2026 (Jul 30) re-verified; stale Shield guide (210-225K tests, $162-174M) replaced with 270-285K tests and $218-230M, unverified Jan 2026 BRAF CDx item dropped, MetaSight terms corrected; no post-Aug 16 events found before Q3 report (Oct 29); score held 8.25 |
| 2026-08-16 | 8.3 | Very Positive | Score 8.0→8.25 (md 8→9). Q2 2026 (July 30) turned the May FDA approval of next-gen Guardant360 Liquid CDx into commercial scale: Shield volume ~4.1x YoY (66K vs 16K tests), oncology volume +63% to ~104K, total revenue +44%, FY26 guidance raised for the second straight quarter to $1.34-1.36B. The AI-driven Smart Platform/InfinityAI moat is demonstrably compounding, not just promised — md up 1 (are/dr held near ceiling/floor). Stays very_positive. |
| 2026-05-16 | 8.0 | Very Positive | W20 refresh — score holds 8.0. Q1 2026 revenue $302M (+48% YoY), TTM crossed $1B; Shield CRC test volume up 5x YoY in Q1 (~44K tests). InfinityAI platform secured tumor-agnostic regulatory approval in Japan. FY2026 guidance raised to $1.30-1.32B. |
| 2026-04-10 | 8.0 | Very Positive | Score 7.8→8.0 (are 8→9). FDA approval (Jan 2026) for Guardant360 CDx BRAF companion diagnostic + MetaSight acquisition + 28 AACR abstracts + $162-174M screening revenue guidance. Direction positive → very_positive. |
| 2026-03-08 | 7.8 | Positive | Score 7.6→7.8 (formula reweight: sb 0.25→0.15, are 0.20→0.25, md 0.20→0.25, dr 0.20→0.25, aam 0.15→0.10) |
| 2026-03-08 | 7.6 | Positive | Initial assessment from batch 8 research |
Healthcare Peers
Last researched: 2026-10-03
This is research and analysis, not financial advice. Scores reflect AI impact potential, not investment recommendations.