Palantir Technologies
Q2 2026 (Aug 3) beat hard: revenue $1.935B (+93% YoY), US commercial +149% YoY to $764M, 220 deals >=$1M closed, FY2026 guidance raised again to ~$8.15B (~82% growth). US commercial is accelerating, not decelerating, at scale — the "sovereign AI" demand Karp called "otherworldly." Score holds at 9.1: ai_revenue_exposure, moat_durability and ai_adoption_maturity are already maxed at 10, so a blowout confirms the ceiling rather than lifting it. The one open risk stays valuation (60x+ forward revenue) and ~40% government concentration.
Scenarios
Rule of 40 at 145% is the highest in company history; US commercial +133% shows AIP compounding faster, not slower, at scale. The ontology moat is proving irreplicable — competitors cannot replicate the forward-deployed bootcamp model. AIP ecosystem creating Salesforce-like lock-in at much higher margins.
At 60x+ forward revenue, needs perfect execution for years. Government revenue concentration (~40%) creates political risk. The 2026 stock has been volatile on macro repricing — base rate for sustaining 130%+ enterprise growth >2-3 quarters is low.
Key Factors to Watch
- ●Q2 2026 revenue +93% YoY, US commercial +149% to $764M, FY26 guide raised to ~$8.15B (~82% growth)
- ●220 deals >=$1M in a single quarter — order-book confirmation of platform compounding
- ●Score maxed on are/md/aam (all 10) — further beats confirm the ceiling, they do not lift it
- ●Ontology moat irreplicable — Databricks/MSFT Fabric remain alternatives but customer concentration is deepening, not diversifying
Score History
| Date | Score | Direction | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 9.1 | Very Positive | W19 Q1 2026 BEAT — md 9→10 (Rule of 40 at 145%, 206 deals >$1M in one quarter — ontology moat irreplicable), dr 4→3 (Databricks/MSFT Fabric have not materialized as growth constraint) |
| 2026-03-08 | 8.6 | Very Positive | Score 8.8→8.6 (formula reweight: sb 0.25→0.15, are 0.20→0.25, md 0.20→0.25, dr 0.20→0.25, aam 0.15→0.10) |
| 2026-03-08 | 8.8 | Very Positive | Score 8.6→8.8 (md 8→9). External research cross-ref: $10B Army contract + ontology switching costs + 157 deals >$1M validate stronger moat |
| 2026-03-08 | 8.6 | Very Positive | Blind spot review: disruption_risk 2→4 (competition from Databricks/MSFT Fabric), moat_durability 9→8 (govt concentration risk) |
| 2026-03-08 | 9.2 | Very Positive | Initial assessment from batch 8 research |
Software Peers
Last researched: 2026-08-22
This is research and analysis, not financial advice. Scores reflect AI impact potential, not investment recommendations.