Palantir Technologies
Q1 2026 revenue $1.63B (+85% YoY) crushed consensus; US revenue +104% YoY to $1.282B (first time crossing 100%); US commercial $595M (+133%). Rule of 40 hit 145% (from 127 last quarter). 206 deals >$1M in a single quarter (72 >$5M, 47 >$10M); 615 US commercial customers (+42%). FY2026 guidance raised to $7.65B (+71% YoY), US commercial >$3.224B (+120%). 1,300+ AIP bootcamps completed.
Scenarios
Rule of 40 at 145% is the highest in company history; US commercial +133% shows AIP compounding faster, not slower, at scale. The ontology moat is proving irreplicable — competitors cannot replicate the forward-deployed bootcamp model. AIP ecosystem creating Salesforce-like lock-in at much higher margins.
At 60x+ forward revenue, needs perfect execution for years. Government revenue concentration (~40%) creates political risk. The 2026 stock has been volatile on macro repricing — base rate for sustaining 130%+ enterprise growth >2-3 quarters is low.
Key Factors to Watch
- ●Q1 2026 US commercial +133%, Rule of 40 = 145% (from 127), FY26 guide raised to $7.65B (+71%)
- ●206 deals >$1M in a single quarter — order-book confirmation of platform compounding
- ●615 US commercial customers (+42%) — AIP bootcamp conversion compounding
- ●Ontology moat irreplicable — Databricks/MSFT Fabric remain alternatives but customer concentration is deepening, not diversifying
Score History
| Date | Score | Direction | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 9.1 | Very Positive | W19 Q1 2026 BEAT — md 9→10 (Rule of 40 at 145%, 206 deals >$1M in one quarter — ontology moat irreplicable), dr 4→3 (Databricks/MSFT Fabric have not materialized as growth constraint) |
| 2026-03-08 | 8.6 | Very Positive | Score 8.8→8.6 (formula reweight: sb 0.25→0.15, are 0.20→0.25, md 0.20→0.25, dr 0.20→0.25, aam 0.15→0.10) |
| 2026-03-08 | 8.8 | Very Positive | Score 8.6→8.8 (md 8→9). External research cross-ref: $10B Army contract + ontology switching costs + 157 deals >$1M validate stronger moat |
| 2026-03-08 | 8.6 | Very Positive | Blind spot review: disruption_risk 2→4 (competition from Databricks/MSFT Fabric), moat_durability 9→8 (govt concentration risk) |
| 2026-03-08 | 9.2 | Very Positive | Initial assessment from batch 8 research |
Software Peers
Last researched: 2026-05-09
This is research and analysis, not financial advice. Scores reflect AI impact potential, not investment recommendations.