Uber Technologies
Q2 2026: record gross bookings $58B (+22% YoY), non-GAAP EPS +35%, trailing-12-month FCF past $10B for the first time. Uber committed $10B over multiple years to AV software partners and is expanding AV service from 7 to 15 cities by end-2026, adding Wayve (London PHV license) to a multi-partner AV roster alongside NVIDIA and Nuro/Lucid. Countervailing: Waymo - its most prestigious AV partner - is unwinding the relationship. Phoenix operations ended in late June 2026, and Waymo has told Uber it will enter Austin and Atlanta independently from January 2028 when the current contract allows (agreement runs through May 2028). AI is now both Uber's largest internal productivity lever (70% AI-generated code, 95% of engineers using it monthly) and a cost problem (People division cut 23% on June 3). The diversification is the hedge, but the category leader choosing to go direct is a structural signal other partners could follow.
Scenarios
If even 10% of 3.8B quarterly trips run on autonomous vehicles by 2028, at higher margins with no driver payouts, EBITDA could triple from current run rate. Multi-partner AV platform (Waymo, NVIDIA, Nuro/Lucid) strengthens marketplace moat.
Waymo, Tesla Robotaxi, and Zoox could bypass Uber entirely and build direct consumer apps. Uber's 5-15% take rate shrinks if AV operators demand lower cuts.
Key Factors to Watch
- ●Q1 2026 EBITDA $2.5B (+33%), growing 2x topline — AI internal tools translating to margin
- ●NVIDIA partnership 28-city robotaxi rollout by 2028 starting LA/SF H1 2027
- ●Nuro driverless permit (May 5, 2026) — SF Bay Area premium robotaxi on track for 2026
- ●95% engineering AI coding adoption; >10% of code autonomous — above tech-peer average
Score History
| Date | Score | Direction | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | 6.5 | Positive | Score 6.7->6.5 (disruption_risk 5->6). Waymo is unwinding the Uber robotaxi partnership - Phoenix ended late June 2026 and Waymo told Uber it will enter Austin and Atlanta independently from Jan 2028 (contract runs to May 2028) - materializing the exact 'AV partner bypasses Uber' bear case already on file. Uber's multi-partner hedge (NVIDIA, Nuro/Lucid, Wayve) is the offset. |
| 2026-05-30 | 6.7 | Positive | Score 6.4→6.7 (md 6→7, aam 8→9). Q1 2026 EBITDA $2.5B grew 2x topline (+33% vs +14%) — AI internal tools translating to margin. NVIDIA partnership expanded AV footprint to 28 cities by 2028 (vs prior 15-city by end-2026); Nuro driverless permit for Lucid Gravity SUVs (May 5). md 6→7 on multi-partner AV platform (Waymo + NVIDIA + Nuro/Lucid + Waabi). aam 8→9 on 95% engineering AI coding adoption and >10% autonomous code. |
| 2026-04-10 | 6.4 | Positive | Score 6.3→6.4 (rounding drift correction — dimensions unchanged, formula recomputed to match stored value) |
| 2026-03-08 | 6.3 | Positive | Score 6.6→6.3 (formula reweight: sb 0.25→0.15, are 0.20→0.25, md 0.20→0.25, dr 0.20→0.25, aam 0.15→0.10) |
| 2026-03-08 | 6.6 | Positive | Initial assessment from batch 9 blind spot review |
Transportation Peers
Last researched: 2026-08-22
This is research and analysis, not financial advice. Scores reflect AI impact potential, not investment recommendations.