Cerebras Systems
Latest quarter is Q2 2026 (reported Aug 12) — GAAP revenue $180.1M (+74% YoY), core revenue $209.9M (+103%), core cloud revenue $127.7M (+287%), and a GAAP net loss of $450.5M driven by roughly $377M of IPO-vesting stock comp. Remaining performance obligations stood at $25.4B, mostly the 750MW OpenAI master agreement; FY2026 core revenue guidance was raised to $880-890M. Concentration rotated rather than diversified — MBZUAI was 34% of Q2 revenue and OpenAI about 32%. After a Sep 30 SemiAnalysis report that OpenAI's GPT-6.1 Sol Ultrafast tier runs on Nvidia GPUs, plus a 19.4M-share unlock, the stock hit a post-IPO low near $166 on Oct 2, below the $185 IPO price.
Scenarios
The 750MW OpenAI agreement (more than $20B multi-year) underpins $25.4B of RPO, and new non-OpenAI wins — Gimlet Labs (reported ~100MW, Sep 28), General Compute (Sep 30), plus AWS and AMD collaborations — show the wafer-scale inference-speed advantage is landing workloads beyond one buyer. $6.74B of cash fully funds the 10x manufacturing ramp.
Two customers (MBZUAI and OpenAI) are roughly two-thirds of revenue, and the Sep 30 report that OpenAI's newest Ultrafast tier runs on Nvidia shows the anchor customer is multi-sourcing — OpenAI also runs a custom-accelerator program with Broadcom. Q3 core gross margin is guided at only 38-40%, and the main IPO lockup expires around Q3 earnings in mid-November.
Key Factors to Watch
- ●Q2 2026 (Aug 12) — core revenue $209.9M (+103% YoY), GAAP net loss $450.5M (mostly IPO stock comp), cash $6.74B
- ●RPO $25.4B at Jun 30, 2026 — about 22% recognizable within 24 months; OpenAI 750MW agreement is the majority
- ●Concentration — Q1 2026 two UAE-related customers 74% of revenue; Q2 MBZUAI 34%, OpenAI $56.8M (~32%)
- ●OpenAI holds warrants on 33.4M shares (milestone-vesting) and lent $1.0B at 6% due 2032 — commercial and financial entanglement
- ●Sep 30, 2026 SemiAnalysis report (Ultrafast tier on Nvidia) plus 19.4M-share unlock — stock ~$166 on Oct 2 vs $185 IPO; Altman reaffirmed partnership Oct 2
- ●FY2026 core revenue guide $880-890M; Q3 core revenue guide $214-216M at 38-40% core gross margin; Q3 report expected ~Nov 10
Score History
| Date | Score | Direction | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | 7.5 | Positive | Rotating refresh — Q2 2026 (Aug 12) figures re-verified at SEC; stale text fixed ($10B OpenAI deal, 86% UAE share, $95B market cap). New since Aug 16 — Sep 30 SemiAnalysis report that OpenAI's GPT-6.1 Sol Ultrafast tier runs on Nvidia plus a 19.4M-share unlock drove a post-IPO low near $166 (Oct 2). Considered dr 5 to 6 (-0.25); gate fails (one underlying unconfirmed report, Altman reaffirmed partnership, no threshold cross). Score held 7.55; revisit at Q3 (~Nov 10). |
| 2026-08-16 | 7.5 | Positive | Score 7.8→7.55 (dr 4→5). First full public quarter (Q2 2026, Aug 12) confirmed the pre-IPO bear case with a hard number: $25.4B of remaining performance obligations, the majority from one $20B OpenAI master agreement (OpenAI also an equity holder — related-party risk). Cloud revenue +287% YoY, but the market sold a beat-adjacent print down 12-17% on concentration plus a weak Q3 guide. Concentration rotated from UAE to OpenAI, it did not diversify; dr up 1. Held positive. |
| 2026-05-16 | 7.8 | Positive | W20 IPO — score 8.0→7.8 (md 8→7). Prospectus confirms G42+MBZUAI=86% revenue (related parties), unchanged from 85% G42-only in 2024. Market cap ~$95B; ticker CBRS on Nasdaq. |
| 2026-03-08 | 8.0 | Very Positive | Score 8.1→8.0 (formula reweight: sb 0.25→0.15, are 0.20→0.25, md 0.20→0.25, dr 0.20→0.25, aam 0.15→0.10) |
| 2026-03-08 | 8.1 | Very Positive | Score 7.9→8.1 (md 7→8). External research cross-ref: $10B OpenAI deal + unique wafer-scale architecture validate moat durability |
| 2026-03-08 | 7.9 | Positive | Initial assessment from batch 8 research |
Software Peers
Last researched: 2026-10-03
This is research and analysis, not financial advice. Scores reflect AI impact potential, not investment recommendations.