Duke Energy
Q1 2026 revenue $9.18B (beat $8.49B est.), adjusted EPS $1.93. Added 2.7 GW of new data center energy service agreements in Q1 alone — total contracted load now 7.6 GW (up from 1.5 GW Q4 2025), with nearly two-thirds already under construction. Additional 7.8 GW in high-confidence late-stage pipeline. Carolinas load growth guided 4-5% annually 2027-2030. $83B capex plan unchanged.
Scenarios
7.6 GW contracted with two-thirds already under construction is order-book confirmation, not pipeline. Carolinas geographic lock-in with no alternative utility. $83B capex creates compounding rate base earning regulated returns.
Revenue recognition still 2027-2030 weighted — order book is real but cash flow lag is meaningful. Internal AI adoption is below utility peer average — passive demand beneficiary, not active AI deployer.
Key Factors to Watch
- ●Q1 2026 — 7.6 GW data center ESAs contracted (2.7 GW added in Q1 alone), nearly two-thirds under construction
- ●Additional 7.8 GW late-stage pipeline; Carolinas load growth guided 4-5% annually 2027-2030
- ●Carolinas geographic moat: major hub with no competing utility
- ●Internal AI maturity low — demand beneficiary, not AI-driven operator
Score History
| Date | Score | Direction | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 7.3 | Positive | W19 Q1 2026 BEAT — are 6→7. Data center ESAs jumped 1.5 GW → 7.6 GW total contracted in one quarter (2.7 GW added in Q1 alone), nearly 2/3 under construction; $1B+ order-book threshold met |
| 2026-03-08 | 7.1 | Positive | Score 7.3→7.1 (md 8→7). md recalibrated: regulated utility, moat persists but AI-irrelevant |
| 2026-03-08 | 7.3 | Positive | Score 7.3→7.3 (are 7→6, aam 5→6). External research cross-ref: DC revenue impact delayed to 2028 (are↓); AWS collab + self-healing grid + autonomous control patents (aam↑) |
| 2026-03-08 | 7.3 | Positive | Initial assessment from batch 5 research |
Manufacturing Peers
Last researched: 2026-05-09
This is research and analysis, not financial advice. Scores reflect AI impact potential, not investment recommendations.