Ford Motor Company
Q2 2026 (reported July 28) — revenue $48.3B (-4%), adjusted EBIT $2.5B (5.2% margin), net loss $1.3B on a $3.6B largely non-cash charge for exiting the BlueOval SK battery JV; FY2026 guidance raised to adjusted EBIT $10-11B and adjusted FCF $6-7B. The commercial Pro unit earned $1.7B EBIT; Model e lost $919M and is guided to a ~$4B 2026 loss, including ~$1B for the Universal EV platform and the new Energy storage business (20 GWh by late 2027). Paid software subscriptions passed 1.7M by September (+40%), over 900K of them Pro Intelligence. AI is bought, not built — a Google Cloud-hosted app assistant; eyes-off BlueCruise targeted for 2028.
Scenarios
Software is scaling fast (1.7M+ paid subscriptions, +40% YoY) on a commercial base holding ~41% of the US Class 1-7 truck and van segment, where telematics and fleet software carry the best margins. Next-gen BlueCruise is 30% cheaper to build and debuts on the 2027 UEV midsize pickup.
Even at a few hundred dollars a year, 1.7M subscriptions is well under $1B against roughly $180B+ of annual revenue (our estimate) — immaterial. Autonomy and in-car AI are bought (Google Cloud, off-the-shelf LLMs) while Tesla, Waymo and Chinese software-defined rivals set the pace, and ~$4B of 2026 EV losses still absorb capital.
Key Factors to Watch
- ●Q2 2026 (July 28) — adj. EBIT $2.5B, net loss $1.3B incl. $3.6B BlueOval SK exit charge; FY26 adj. EBIT guide raised to $10-11B
- ●Pro EBIT $1.7B in Q2, FY26 Pro guide $7.0-7.5B — the software monetization beachhead
- ●Paid software subscriptions >1.7M through Sept 2026 (+40%); BlueCruise ~14M cumulative hands-free hours
- ●Model e loss guided ~$4B for 2026 incl. ~$1B for UEV platform and Energy storage (20 GWh by late 2027)
- ●Next-gen BlueCruise 30% cheaper, debuts 2027; eyes-off driving targeted 2028 (future-dated)
- ●AI assistant hosted on Google Cloud in app, in-vehicle from 2027 — buy-not-build AI posture
Score History
| Date | Score | Direction | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | 4.2 | Negative | Rotating refresh — Q2 2026 (July 28) replaces FY2025-era text; subscriptions 818K to 1.7M+ (Sept, +40%), Model e loss guide narrowed to ~$4B, Pro EBIT guide $7.0-7.5B, $3.6B BlueOval SK exit charge; removed unverified $10.7B/$7B charge figures and unsourced $3-5B software revenue projection; score held at 4.2. |
| 2026-03-08 | 4.2 | Negative | Score 4.8→4.2 (formula reweight: sb 0.25→0.15, are 0.20→0.25, md 0.20→0.25, dr 0.20→0.25, aam 0.15→0.10) |
| 2026-03-08 | 4.8 | Neutral | Initial assessment from batch 9 blind spot review |
Manufacturing Peers
Last researched: 2026-10-03
This is research and analysis, not financial advice. Scores reflect AI impact potential, not investment recommendations.