GE Vernova
Q2 2026 (reported July 22) — orders $24.2B (+88% organic), revenue $11.1B (+22%), GAAP EPS $2.47, adjusted EBITDA margin 11.3%, free cash flow $5.1B, backlog $176B. Gas backlog plus slot reservations reached 116 GW (100 GW in Q1), guided to at least 125 GW by year-end and mostly sold out through 2030, while output climbs to a 20 GW/yr rate in Q3 2026, 24 GW in 2028 and a targeted 30 GW in 2030. Electrification equipment backlog hit $40.6B and data-center orders topped $5B year-to-date, more than all of 2025. FY2026 guidance was raised to revenue $45.5-46.5B and FCF $11.5-12.5B; Wind remains a drag at a -13.6% EBITDA margin.
Scenarios
Dispatchable gas generation plus grid equipment is the physical bottleneck of the AI data-center buildout, and a three-player turbine oligopoly (with Siemens Energy and Mitsubishi) sold out through 2030 means multi-year pricing power. FCF guidance nearly doubled ($11.5-12.5B from $6.5-7.5B), so backlog deposits are already cash; BWRX-300 SMRs add optionality.
Revenue from today's orders lands mostly in 2027-2030 — if AI capex peaks first, orders reverse just as gas output scales toward 30 GW/yr. Wind losses (~$400M EBITDA in 2026) persist, a CFO transition is under way, and the valuation prices in continued beats.
Key Factors to Watch
- ●Q2 2026 (July 22) — orders $24.2B (+88% organic), backlog $176B, FCF $5.1B; FY26 FCF guide raised to $11.5-12.5B
- ●Gas backlog + slots 116 GW (from 100 GW), at least 125 GW expected by YE2026; mostly sold out through 2030
- ●Data-center orders >$5B YTD (more than all of 2025); electrification equipment backlog $40.6B (+$16.6B YoY)
- ●Gas output 20 GW/yr rate from Q3 2026, 24 GW 2028, 30 GW targeted 2030 — glut risk if AI capex turns
- ●Wind revenue -10%, EBITDA margin -13.6%, ~$400M 2026 loss guided
- ●CFO Ken Parks retiring; Claire McDonough (ex-Rivian) CFO from Jan 1, 2027 (8-K Aug 27, 2026)
Score History
| Date | Score | Direction | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | 7.8 | Positive | Rotating refresh — Q2 2026 (July 22) re-verified against the 8-K release; corrected $2.47 to GAAP EPS (not an adjusted-EPS miss), electrification equipment backlog to $40.6B, and removed unverified named-customer claims (Microsoft 2.7 GW Texas, frontier labs queuing); are=8 re-anchored on >$5B YTD data-center orders; CFO succession (Aug 27) not score-relevant; score held at 7.8. |
| 2026-08-16 | 7.8 | Positive | Score 7.55→7.8 (are 7→8). Q2 2026 (July 22) marked the first time named frontier AI labs — not just cloud arms — contracted multi-GW power directly: Microsoft's 2.7 GW Texas data center (7 turbines), with Meta, Google, OpenAI and Anthropic reportedly queuing; electrification backlog $42B with >$5B of data-center orders YTD; gas backlog 116 GW. AI revenue exposure broadened from generic hyperscaler demand to direct frontier-lab contracts. The EPS miss ($2.47 vs $3.04) is a margin/execution watch — held on moat_durability. |
| 2026-06-11 | 7.5 | Positive | Initial assessment — Ondra portfolio holding, added on BF coverage-gap signal (inbox 2026-06-10). Score 7.55 = AI power demand drives record orders and a sold-out gas oligopoly into 2030 (md 8, dr 2), but revenue exposure is broad energy, not AI pure-play (are 7) — slots between Vertiv 7.6 and NextEra 7.5. Q1 2026 orders +71% organic, backlog $163B, guidance raised. |
Manufacturing Peers
Last researched: 2026-10-03
This is research and analysis, not financial advice. Scores reflect AI impact potential, not investment recommendations.