Micron Technology
Memory pure-play and one of three HBM suppliers globally (with SK hynix and Samsung), riding the AI-driven DRAM and HBM shortage. FQ4 FY2026 (reported Sep 30) set another record — revenue $54.23B against $11.32B a year earlier, GAAP gross margin 86.8% (44.7% a year ago), GAAP net income $37.70B. Core Data Center ($18.00B) and Cloud Memory ($16.28B) made up about 63% of the quarter; FY2026 revenue reached $133.19B with $89.68B of operating cash flow. FQ1 FY2027 is guided to $61.5B plus or minus $1.5B at roughly 86% gross margin. The release does not break out HBM revenue, and only about 40% of revenue sits under fixed-price or capped contracts per TrendForce.
Scenarios
AI demand has turned a commodity into a contracted, near-90%-margin business for now — 16 take-or-pay Strategic Customer Agreements, a $61.5B next-quarter guide and HBM4 qualification for Nvidia's Vera Rubin give visibility no prior memory cycle had. Data-center units are now close to two-thirds of revenue.
Memory is still a cycle — after earlier peaks revenue fell about 23% (FY2019) and about 49% (FY2023). Only about 40% of revenue is price-protected, Samsung and SK hynix are adding HBM capacity, and an AI-capex digestion phase would hit a business earning 87% gross margins hardest.
Key Factors to Watch
- ●FQ4 FY2026 (Sep 30) — revenue $54.23B (4.8x YoY), GAAP gross margin 86.8%, GAAP net income $37.70B
- ●FY2026 revenue $133.19B; operating cash flow $89.68B; capex $27.37B
- ●Core Data Center $18.00B + Cloud Memory $16.28B = ~63% of FQ4 revenue; HBM revenue not disclosed
- ●FQ1 FY2027 guide $61.5B plus or minus $1.5B, ~86% gross margin
- ●16 take-or-pay Strategic Customer Agreements; ~40% of revenue fixed-price or capped (TrendForce)
- ●Three-supplier HBM oligopoly — past memory peaks were followed by 23-49% revenue declines
Score History
| Date | Score | Direction | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | 7.5 | Positive | W40 mentioned-deep — HOLD 7.55. FQ4 FY2026 (Sep 30) revenue $54.23B (4.8x YoY) at 86.8% GAAP gross margin, data-center units ~63% of revenue, FQ1 guided to $61.5B. ai_revenue_exposure 9 to 10 was considered and rejected — +0.25 with no direction crossing fails the 0.3 gate, and cycle risk is at its highest when margins peak. |
| 2026-06-27 | 7.5 | Positive | md 7->8. Q3 FY2026 (June 24) revenue quadrupled YoY to $41.46B with 16 take-or-pay Strategic Customer Agreements locking ~$100B contracted revenue through 2030 — the upfront-deposit backlog converts a cyclical commodity toward contracted-revenue visibility. Stays positive. |
| 2026-05-08 | 7.3 | Positive | Initial assessment — Ondra portfolio holding, HBM ramp with Q2 FY2026 BEAT |
Manufacturing Peers
Last researched: 2026-10-03
This is research and analysis, not financial advice. Scores reflect AI impact potential, not investment recommendations.